The Autumn Statement November 2015

So today the chancellor George Osborne released the Autumn Statement - everyone was braced for impact since the last couple of times he opened his mouth the entire of the property industry was given a swift and hefty kick in the pants - and today appeared to bear more of the same.

The biggest gasps can be heard quite clearly from Landlords who have just learned that in order to buy a property after April 2016 they will be relieved of an additional 3% of Stamp Duty Land Tax on their purchase price, save for properties below the £40,000 mark (I can tell you there are slim pickings for even a damp studio apartment anywhere south of Luton in that price bracket).

Add to this the removal of the current 45% mortgage rate relief for Buy To Let Landlords and you can bet your bottom quid that rents will be set to rise, and some Landlords will be inclined to say sod this for a game of soldiers and start binning their stock.

The opinions on this sway wildly from the satisfied cackle of the 35 year old first time buyer who can't afford to move out from under Mum & Dad, to the dismayed and angry jeers from Landlords who stand to lose a great deal, in some cases a whole lifestyle built around generating a healthy income stream to support relative financial freedom.

The other aspects to consider in this budget statement are the promises to build more homes (*yawn* - heard it!), the changes to social housing, benefits, universal credit, the U-turn on tax credit cuts (but the potential rises in Council Tax swoop in to save the day - or not). The 'middle class' stand to be better off with a rise in the 40% tax rate threshold, a rise in the personal tax allowance, and changes to inheritance tax thresholds, which all paint quite a refreshingly sunny outlook if you're generally doing OK in life, but woe betide you if you're struggling or at the bottom of the stack - it's going to get even more ugly, and there's 4 more years of cuts to come.

Allow me to explain.

When compared to the rest of the UK, the percentage of citizens in Hertfordshire who are priced out of buying AND renting is comparatively very low, with many gainfully employed and approximately 80% of the housing stock is owned or mortgaged, with around 10-12% privately rented, but it would be a very grave mistake indeed to settle into any sense of smug satisfaction that this won't transpose itself into problems on your doorstep.

The government is boasting in this statement (through the masterful and sensuous massage of figures and facts) that they have really reined in spending and that's put us in a position where we've got a few quid to slosh about on some new starter homes and begrudgingly build on old government land, a bit of money for sports and recreation, a little bit of cash to plug a few holes here and there - all sounds dandy.

The issue though is that when you take measures which strip the most disadvantaged and vulnerable in society of the little funding they have, those people have to sink or swim - so where they cannot buy, they must rent, where they cannot rent, they must approach the local authority to house them, and when that is not possible they must either become homeless or relocate - the issue here is that the problem doesn't just go away, we as a society still have to pay for it.

Now you're going to team up this watershed of effectively cutting loose the poor and letting them drift with a gentle plumping up of the 'middle mixers' of the country, but at the same time snatching away some of their vital income in the form of second homes and Buy To Let. Now this is interesting - and for more than one reason.  Many in my industry are saying George Osborne and the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility) are buffoons, it's a bad idea - no, wait - a TERRIBLE idea, he doesn't know what he's doing, he's a clown, a nincompoop the whole thing is a sham purely designed to rip out the throat of the Buy To Let industry in an unceremoniously bloody fait accompli.

I can understand the rage - who wouldn't be appalled at losing an income stream that supports a certain lifestyle? Isn't this why people are so enamoured with Buy To Let? Landlords in the Private Sector quite rightly voice the opinion that they provide housing that Housing Associations do not or cannot provide for many people who cannot afford to buy their own home.  Again we return to the matter of affordability. There are some who argue that Landlords owning and continuing to buy all of the small housing stock creates a natural vacuum where there would otherwise be first time buyers - this is hotly rebuffed by the Private Rented Sector tycoons of course.

Part of the reality here is that in order to buy a property, people need to drastically change their lifestyle, and that is a big upheaval - you have to sacrifice a great deal to own a property and sometimes people are simply not prepared to do it, but does that mean they forfeit the right to be appalled by soaring house prices later? I'll throw that one to the floor to decide!

And tycoons of any variety haven't managed to escape the all-seeing-eye of George 'Lord Sauron' Osborne, as he's taken a neat little slice from dividend payments over £5000, restricted Non Dom status, increased insurance premium tax and tapered away the tax free allowances on pensions for those earning over £150,000 - the pinch may be more of a gentle squidge at this level as one can't upset all of ones old Eton chums by taxing them too much, but it's still there. Bless him for trying.

But when it comes to property, we're at the mercy of the common all garden Landlord. Private sector Landlords are faced with a choice over the next 12 months before the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge starts to pinch, swiftly followed by tax changes and possible interest rate rises - they can either go on a buying rampage and boost their stock with an aim of running a larger portfolio either privately or through a limited company setup, which will see a soaring demand for smaller properties, followed by an inevitable price boom, or they can start to shed stock and cash in on their asset, potentially consolidating bricks and mortar into their own home or a more modest portfolio of high performing stock - this could have the opposite effect of flooding the market with property which could make for a market correction unless handled very deftly.

This is where the battle will be fought, and if Landlords do not play their cards extremely carefully over the coming months, they could easily become the national scapegoat for a second housing crisis. A boom or tumble in small housing stock prices will have a knock-on effect over time on the equity of larger homes, and the meagre promise of 400,000 starter homes by 2020 really isn't going to make a dent in the problem - we haven't got enough property for those who need it, and the stock we do have is too expensive because wages haven't risen and we've had a six year lull in house building - that's what it really boils down to.

The most sensible course of action for any Landlord would be to conduct a rent review at the earliest available opportunity and maximise the profitability of their properties, serving rent increase notices where appropriate (only of course if ethical to do so) - an independent service that we can provide at Hawk & Chadwick. Landlords may also wish to consider quiet sales of 'fringe' properties to first time buyers before the rush really begins - when it happens it's going to be the Black Friday of the property industry, and there are bound to be casualties. Please don't be among them.

Hertfordshire Property Remains Strong

We're often asked to speculate on where the market is going and amongst the professionals we work with on a regular basis, as well as the public, we hear the same statement-and-question combo;

"House prices are still rising - how long can it go on for?!" with the subtle but unspoken implication that we're all on a runaway train headed for an outage in the tracks over a huge canyon - and here be beasties.

Let's examine the facts - worldwide population is growing by 2.5 new little people per second.  Just let that sink in for a moment and count 2.5 births per second. That's huge. Yes, the statistics of those who get to house-buying age and financial security will be a massively decreasing funnel, but that doesn't mean we can ignore it.

Couple this with the undeniable fact that London is one of the most desired domiciles in the world. I know it's sounds sensationally Clarkson-esque to say "in the world" (now you're imagining Clarkson doing it aren't you?) but the reality is, whether red or blue, left or right, rich or poor, the United Kingdom has created a financial, social, economical and cultural beacon which gains admiration in some small way like no other City on the planet - personally, I don't really care for the place, but that doesn't mean I can make a wholesale denial of the fact that everyone else bloody loves it.

So naturally, people from all locations, denominations, faiths, races, backgrounds and intentions want to be here, wether to experience it, profit from it, or whatever the motivation, people are coming here and we have to put them somewhere.

Now what happens when you have a rising population (let's ignore where that's coming from because that's not really the point) they all need somewhere to live. When you've got a certain amount of buildings that people can live in legally and for a set price, you create scarcity, and scarcity is one of the economic ingredients that drives prices.

Right now, it's quite simple - we do not have enough available housing to meet the huge demand, and especially in areas close to the jewel in the crown of the globe (according to so many people) where everyone wants to be - so what we have here is a situation where the price will continue to grow as long as there is a supply imbalance and a soaring demand.  Your faithful dear government have actually done a masterful job of controlling this by keeping a firm hand on the throttle by tweaking mortgage approvals, changing stamp duty, making tax changes - they're very clever people and there are a lot of them who have a heavily vested interest in making sure the housing market doesn't cause the rest of the economy to go belly-up.

So, sadly (if you're a first time buyer) or thankfully (if you're the top of the chain and retiring to Spain) the prices are steadily marching upwards.  In Hertfordshire detached properties have risen from £602,498 in May to £631,167 in September. Flats have shifted up a gear from £187,493 to £196,415 in the same timeframe - when you look at stock levels, these are rising too after an uncertain year which has seen an increase in the number of service providers and a concerning drop in stock levels creating a fraught environment in the property sector locally.

The chart below is interactive (neat huh?) you can click on the legend at the bottom to remove different types, so for example you can compare flats to the overall average house price for Hertfordshire by 'switching off' the other columns.  Isn't technology awesome?!

So, come on then - the juicy bit - what does the Crystal Ball say about what's going to happen in the next year?

The situation remains stable - the prices are rising, but with impending tax changes for Landlords and murmurs of interest rate rises, we're already seeing some investors take the view that they will jettison some of their lower performing stock in the next 24 months. This could send a small ripple through the lower end of the market and unless handled carefully, the perfect storm could precipitate a tumble in prices.

This isn't going to be overnight though, and my feeling is that we're still on the upward curve. Just this week we've agreed an asking price deal on a property in deepest darkest Harpenden, which goes to show that while demand remains strong, the buyers are out there and it's worth holding your nerve just for now, but if you're thinking of taking the leap, I wouldn't wait until next Christmas to make the decision. I'll be keeping a close tab on market performance, so check back here for regular updates.

If you're interested in hearing more about the new tax rules for Landlords, or you're interested in learning about how rising population numbers is something we all need to be concerned about, you might be interested in attending St Albans Property Network which is held on the third Wednesday of every month at St Michael's Manor Hotel. The next event is on Wednesday the 20th of January and we have some fantastic speakers lined up for the new year, including Stephen Bown from the charity 'Population Matters' and Kevin Griffiths of Keycrest Accounting.

Schools and House Prices

It cannot be denied that there is a seemingly permanent bond between House Prices and Schools. The massive effect that a good school can have on property values in a given area is astonishing and creates an eye watering scenario for all parents who, naturally, want nothing but the very best educational environment and academic accolades for their children.

As most of you know however, locating a property in the right area and at the right price to get a school place can be compared to some form of medieval torture and is usually accompanied by much wailing and gnashing of teeth. The demand for school places is so high on top of the cultural and social benefits of living in an area as highly regarded as Harpenden that usually the only thing that will guarantee you some security for the future of your child's education is the size of your wallet. But let's not blame the rich denizens of the town, after all, if we had the means we would all surely do the same.

To make matters worse, the problem is set to worsen with an article in the Independent published back in September citing figures that show a projected increase of 12% in the number of secondary school pupils by 2023 - this claim is backed by the official government projections release in July 2015 which actually cites a greater 20% growth by 2024. Many local authorities are straining under the demand for school places, with many frantically urging already oversubscribed schools to take on more students.

To help those in the local area, and those moving in, we undertook a little independent research to try and figure out where the best buys are to get the best possible chance of school places. From our research we have tried to identify a handful of well regarded schools in the district so that we can find out how this affected house prices. Note that this does not mean these are the very best, as school rankings are incredibly complicated and we are not experts so please conduct your own independent research if you would like more information. We have left out a number of local schools as well as Private schools for the simplicity of illustrating a point about property prices.

The best regarded nursery schools;

1. Crabtree Infant & Junior School, 2. The Grove Infants School, 3. The Lea Primary School and Nursery

The best regarded primary schools;

1. St Dominic's Catholic Primary, 2. Roundwood Primary, 3. Crabtree Primary

The top three secondary schools;

1. St George's School, 2. Roundwood Park, 3. Sir John Lawes


Now onto the really interesting bit. The maps!

In order, the two maps below show the Zoopla 'heat map' of prices (for the uninitiated, the 'warmer' the colour, i.e. more red, indicates a 'hotter' or higher price) and the second map is the overlay of the locations of the schools with the Zoopla Property Price heatmap on top.

This gives us an interesting indication of prices around the various schools.

The schools are colour coded - the red pins are secondary schools, the yellow pins are the primary schools and the green pins are nursery schools.

The immediate thing that strikes out from this experiment in drawing correlative conclusions is that where one would have thought the highest value area in the town would be is not necessarily the case - it's clear that the big ticket properties in terms of price are almost exclusively located in the Avenues and the area to the north of Rothamsted (average price paid - £1.92m), and areas such as West Common, East Common and the 'ridge' of the hill upon which Harpenden lies (Dalkeith Road, Sauncey Avenue, Clarendon Road) which I'm sure allows residents an arguably deserved self-satisfaction. However, the concentration of outstanding education can be found and easily reached by purchasing property in the areas just off Station Road, namely, Dalkeith Road (£999,999), Langdale Avenue (£675,000) and Carisbrooke Road (£1.01m).

The downhill stroll to the station, the relative calm and safety of the tight-knit neighbourhood and easy access to the southern end of the town certainly makes this a high priority target for buyers looking in the area - and also adds a good selling point for homes;

"We're within striking distance of no less than seven of the towns best schools, darling!" - Now there's something to boast about over morning coffee at the tennis club.

So what about buying to get into a good school without annihilating your life savings? Well, let's be realistic for a start - this is Harpenden, so for most the experience could be eye-watering in terms of price, bearing in mind the National Average House Price as released by the Land Registry is now £196,000 compared to Harpendens £712,831 - over 263.68% higher than most of the UK (sources: Rightmove and Land Registry). Add to that the fierce competition from London money and you might want to be prepared to kiss a few frogs when looking for a deal. The other aspect to consider is that it's not just as simple as buying a house near the school and Bob's your uncle - there is a huge amount of statistical calculation that goes into which school place is offered to whom and when, and you're not guaranteed a place just by postcode, so don't be fooled into buying nearby and thinking you can secure a place as easily as that. There is way more to this, but we're interested in house prices for this article.

The roads where you're most likely to find a good family home and stand a good chance of getting into a local school are likely to be those in the 'cooler' areas on the heatmap, but still within that golden oval on the eastern side of the railway, up Station Road. Often the best deals can be found by understanding that there are roads that are on average, for one reason or another, valued lower than others. Residential streets such as Overstone Road (£547,250) and Cowper Road (£639,000) provide opportunities for you to get your family where it needs to be geographically while avoiding bankruptcy.

Space tends to be limited in the centre of town, so if the station isn't a deal breaker, my hot areas to watch in the town are Southdown, with it's cooler pricing and great access to schools, or North Harpenden and out towards Kinsbourne Green. You might have a greater battle in terms of distance from the schools, but you'll be compromising by having a larger garden and more breathing space.

Of course this isn't an exhaustive list of the top roads, and since your eventual home is such a personal thing it would be impossible and churlish of me to suggest that Dalkeith Road trumps Tuffnells Way or vice versa. Many agents in the town seem to forget one fundamental yet vital aspect of this business, and that is while one deal may certainly look like any other, it is the people involved with their myriad nuances of personal taste that make the entire thing so delightfully interesting.

If you've enjoyed this article, please share it on Twitter and Facebook. If you would like to find out where your next best buy will be, why not give me a call. Alternatively if you're interested in knowing whether your home is going to be a honeypot for the buying bees, you can reach me on 01582 346 111 to discuss your next move.

IMPORTANT NOTES - PLEASE READ:

The data listed and used in researching this article is based purely on government information sourced from the Department for Education school performance reports and data tables. We took into account overall school results to pick the nine schools highlighted above. Your individual biases, experiences and opinions may differ. We have no affiliation, preference or fondness for any particular school in the local area. These schools are not listed in any particular order and this is not a league table or a suggestion of preference, ranking, prowess, ability, cost or any other pitch of favour.

Please also note that in this article we have not examined other local schools such as Batford and Wood End which are also highly regarded educational establishments. It is necessary that you consider all schools in the area before making a choice. You can find a full list on the Department for Education website.

For detailed school information please contact the schools directly or contact your local council.