The Autumn Statement November 2015

So today the chancellor George Osborne released the Autumn Statement - everyone was braced for impact since the last couple of times he opened his mouth the entire of the property industry was given a swift and hefty kick in the pants - and today appeared to bear more of the same.

The biggest gasps can be heard quite clearly from Landlords who have just learned that in order to buy a property after April 2016 they will be relieved of an additional 3% of Stamp Duty Land Tax on their purchase price, save for properties below the £40,000 mark (I can tell you there are slim pickings for even a damp studio apartment anywhere south of Luton in that price bracket).

Add to this the removal of the current 45% mortgage rate relief for Buy To Let Landlords and you can bet your bottom quid that rents will be set to rise, and some Landlords will be inclined to say sod this for a game of soldiers and start binning their stock.

The opinions on this sway wildly from the satisfied cackle of the 35 year old first time buyer who can't afford to move out from under Mum & Dad, to the dismayed and angry jeers from Landlords who stand to lose a great deal, in some cases a whole lifestyle built around generating a healthy income stream to support relative financial freedom.

The other aspects to consider in this budget statement are the promises to build more homes (*yawn* - heard it!), the changes to social housing, benefits, universal credit, the U-turn on tax credit cuts (but the potential rises in Council Tax swoop in to save the day - or not). The 'middle class' stand to be better off with a rise in the 40% tax rate threshold, a rise in the personal tax allowance, and changes to inheritance tax thresholds, which all paint quite a refreshingly sunny outlook if you're generally doing OK in life, but woe betide you if you're struggling or at the bottom of the stack - it's going to get even more ugly, and there's 4 more years of cuts to come.

Allow me to explain.

When compared to the rest of the UK, the percentage of citizens in Hertfordshire who are priced out of buying AND renting is comparatively very low, with many gainfully employed and approximately 80% of the housing stock is owned or mortgaged, with around 10-12% privately rented, but it would be a very grave mistake indeed to settle into any sense of smug satisfaction that this won't transpose itself into problems on your doorstep.

The government is boasting in this statement (through the masterful and sensuous massage of figures and facts) that they have really reined in spending and that's put us in a position where we've got a few quid to slosh about on some new starter homes and begrudgingly build on old government land, a bit of money for sports and recreation, a little bit of cash to plug a few holes here and there - all sounds dandy.

The issue though is that when you take measures which strip the most disadvantaged and vulnerable in society of the little funding they have, those people have to sink or swim - so where they cannot buy, they must rent, where they cannot rent, they must approach the local authority to house them, and when that is not possible they must either become homeless or relocate - the issue here is that the problem doesn't just go away, we as a society still have to pay for it.

Now you're going to team up this watershed of effectively cutting loose the poor and letting them drift with a gentle plumping up of the 'middle mixers' of the country, but at the same time snatching away some of their vital income in the form of second homes and Buy To Let. Now this is interesting - and for more than one reason.  Many in my industry are saying George Osborne and the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility) are buffoons, it's a bad idea - no, wait - a TERRIBLE idea, he doesn't know what he's doing, he's a clown, a nincompoop the whole thing is a sham purely designed to rip out the throat of the Buy To Let industry in an unceremoniously bloody fait accompli.

I can understand the rage - who wouldn't be appalled at losing an income stream that supports a certain lifestyle? Isn't this why people are so enamoured with Buy To Let? Landlords in the Private Sector quite rightly voice the opinion that they provide housing that Housing Associations do not or cannot provide for many people who cannot afford to buy their own home.  Again we return to the matter of affordability. There are some who argue that Landlords owning and continuing to buy all of the small housing stock creates a natural vacuum where there would otherwise be first time buyers - this is hotly rebuffed by the Private Rented Sector tycoons of course.

Part of the reality here is that in order to buy a property, people need to drastically change their lifestyle, and that is a big upheaval - you have to sacrifice a great deal to own a property and sometimes people are simply not prepared to do it, but does that mean they forfeit the right to be appalled by soaring house prices later? I'll throw that one to the floor to decide!

And tycoons of any variety haven't managed to escape the all-seeing-eye of George 'Lord Sauron' Osborne, as he's taken a neat little slice from dividend payments over £5000, restricted Non Dom status, increased insurance premium tax and tapered away the tax free allowances on pensions for those earning over £150,000 - the pinch may be more of a gentle squidge at this level as one can't upset all of ones old Eton chums by taxing them too much, but it's still there. Bless him for trying.

But when it comes to property, we're at the mercy of the common all garden Landlord. Private sector Landlords are faced with a choice over the next 12 months before the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge starts to pinch, swiftly followed by tax changes and possible interest rate rises - they can either go on a buying rampage and boost their stock with an aim of running a larger portfolio either privately or through a limited company setup, which will see a soaring demand for smaller properties, followed by an inevitable price boom, or they can start to shed stock and cash in on their asset, potentially consolidating bricks and mortar into their own home or a more modest portfolio of high performing stock - this could have the opposite effect of flooding the market with property which could make for a market correction unless handled very deftly.

This is where the battle will be fought, and if Landlords do not play their cards extremely carefully over the coming months, they could easily become the national scapegoat for a second housing crisis. A boom or tumble in small housing stock prices will have a knock-on effect over time on the equity of larger homes, and the meagre promise of 400,000 starter homes by 2020 really isn't going to make a dent in the problem - we haven't got enough property for those who need it, and the stock we do have is too expensive because wages haven't risen and we've had a six year lull in house building - that's what it really boils down to.

The most sensible course of action for any Landlord would be to conduct a rent review at the earliest available opportunity and maximise the profitability of their properties, serving rent increase notices where appropriate (only of course if ethical to do so) - an independent service that we can provide at Hawk & Chadwick. Landlords may also wish to consider quiet sales of 'fringe' properties to first time buyers before the rush really begins - when it happens it's going to be the Black Friday of the property industry, and there are bound to be casualties. Please don't be among them.