How times have changed...

Inspired by a post I saw on Facebook where a Lettings Agency colleague shared an article about the cost of living in 1974 published by The Guardian, I was spurred on to have a look at the differences between then and now, particularly in terms of housing.

In a recent radio interview with BBC Three Counties on the Roberto Perrone show, I was part of a panel of property experts discussing the state of the British housing market, and in particular how it affects the local area.  We were on air on the day of the Brexit vote, and so we couldn't discuss that particular elephant in the room, but one thing came up with didn't sit right with me - "When I bought my first house, it was just as hard as it is now." It seemed tinged with pomposity and self righteousness, and seemed to belittle the struggle of anyone who might be pushing forth toward their dream of owning their own home, no matter how modest that may be.

At the time, I didn't have the figures to hand, and statistical analysis is a tough game to be in - as they say, you can say anything with facts - and indeed many factors go into comparing one period in time with another, however I've wanted to look at this for a while and this article gave me the impetus to do a little research.

Recently an online battle between Baby Boomers and Millenials (personally I sit between the two in terms of generational age so I get to see the whole debate from a unique viewpoint) as to whether it really is just as hard now as it was then has erupted with each side slinging accusations at the other. The younger generation feel that their elders managed to get rich on a booming housing market, and had an easy route in to generating great wealth, which they're now enjoying in their golden years, some in great luxury. And the older generation feel they had to work hard, and live on very little in order to get where they are, and they sometimes view the younger generation with scorn and disdain for being idle thrillseekers with little concept of what hard graft really means. Who is right here? It's true to say that not everyone agrees with either camp, but the bitter aftertaste is there - the younger wondering why they cant have what their parents and grandparents enjoy, and sitting in baffled bemusement about how they're supposed to get there, and the older generations scoffing at the impetuous comments of coasting millenials.

Here are the facts I managed to dig up - bear in mind i'm not a member of MENSA or some kind of mathematician, but I think you'll agree the results are certainly interesting. The Guardian Article cites the average house price in 1976 as £12,704 and the average wage of £72 per week - that works out to £3,744 per annum. Based on that, the average wage made up 29.47% of the average house price. The annual average interest rate was 6.8%. Fast forward to 2016, the average wage is £27,600 and the average house price is £211,230 (Land Registry, May 2016) which means the average uk wage is now just 13.06% of the average house price. Interest rates are 0.5%.

That's a decrease of 55.68% in the purchasing power of modern wages against those of the populace in 1976. Yes, borrowing is far cheaper when you isolate interest rates, however access to borrowing is much tighter than it has been for years thanks to the banks ruining the economy in 2007/2008. Not only this but look at the population figures - 56.21 million people lived in the UK in 1976, versus 65.11 million in 2016 - an increase in population of 15%. When you add in to the mix a scarcity of property, you end up with inflated house prices.

That all seems to point to the fact that todays first time buyers have got it far harder than those who went house hunting back in 1976 - more competition, harder to get a bank to lend to you, larger mortgage payments and greater in terms of length to keep those payments down. It's a frightening set of statistics, but it's important when looking at statistics like these to understand that 'averages' don't paint the whole picture, and the ease/difficulty will have differed depending on where you lived, what work was available, infrastructure, transport, daily living costs - all of these things play a part. It has to be noted that the country had over 1 million people unemployed, the economy was in the toilet and there were massive public sector strikes, as well as one of the hottest summers on record. Incidentally, it was also the year that Ford Fiesta was first produced - hence the picture.

Anyway, perhaps the sad reality is that owning a home now is something that will simply never happen for a lot of people without making some heavy sacrifices elsewhere in their lifestyle, and they may find themselves renting for life. It's up to us all to work to change the tide away from 'generation rent' if we think it's important to us as a nation. It does have severe implications - young families renting won't be in a position to remortgage to cover nursing home costs, or take in elderly relatives. If you're wise and invest in property now and push to become a Landlord, you can probably rest assured that you won't be short of tenants - or nursing home funds - for a long time yet.

You can read The Guardian article by Viv Gorskop here